Threat Assessment / Strategy

One of the first facts about school shootings or targeted violence attacks is that they are rarely impulsive; these attackers typically don't 'just snap'.  Even though the media has often described these attacks as occurring 'out of the blue', in reality they do not. Instead, the attackers think about and plan their attacks in advance — sometimes a few days in advance, sometimes over a year in advance.

Expressing thoughts or fantasies considering the use of violence to address a real or perceived grievance, threat, or provocation. Note that many people have occasional or fleeting thoughts of violence in response to perceived grievances. Most do not act on those thoughts or move forward along the pathway. Therefore, knowledge that someone is thinking about violence does not confirm that a danger exists, but it should alert us to the possibility and may indicate that the person may be struggling with a grievance of some sort or otherwise considering violence as a way to solve a problem.

Giving thought and consideration not only to the idea of committing violence, but also to the who, what, when, where, and how of doing so. Expressions may begin to reference timing, location, targets, means, methods, etc. The person of concern may seek out and gather information regarding prior shootings or shooters, information about potential targets, means of causing harm, equipment, etc.

Beyond just acquiring weapons, this stage involves attempts to prepare for the violence and to develop or acquire the means and methods to engage in harm to target(s)/victim(s). The person of concern may try to obtain the means to fulfill their plans (weapons, tools, particular clothing, etc.). They may adjust plans if they encounter barriers or see opportunities that support their violent ideas and plans. The person of concern may test boundaries to practice accessing secure areas. 

The person of concern moves to carry out the violent plan.Research indicates that while targeted violence incidents are rarely spontaneous and impulsive, they can escalate rapidly from ideation through implementation. This may be expedited by a sense of desperation for resolution, lack of concern for consequences, or the influences of others encouraging escalation (e.g., through social media or direct communications). When there are indications that a person of concern may pose a threat to the school community, the threat assessment team will need to move quickly to inquire about and intervene in that planning or preparation.

As you can see from the above information, there is a lot of activity going on that can help us discover a plan and possibly prevent a violent act from occurring. In the ideation stage, a student might make what appear to be off-handed comments about an attack. They may express anger toward the school or an individual. They may make statements indicating desperation or depression. The planning stage can also be considered the research stage. Prior attacks could be studied. The preparation stage is when the tools to conduct the act are gathered and practicing or 'dress rehearsal' begins.

The challenge is that while there is a lot of activity going on and many pieces of the puzzle are available, the information is likely to be scattered and fragmented. When a threat is reported, a multi-disciplinary threat assessment team can act quickly to assemble the facts to determine if the person of concern is on the pathway to violence. They then need to work to solve underlying problems and move the student away from thoughts/plans of violence.

There are several options for building a threat assessment program in K-12 schools or districts. These options include One District-Wide Team, Multiple School/Area Based Teams and District-Level Team and Multiple School/Area-Based Teams. Smaller districts with fewer resources may opt to build a regional team.